I often tell my kids that they should hold their hands up if they are in the wrong, well it appears my recent blog about Bank of England interest rates may have been written in haste! If you must, you can read it here. In fact since publishing the last blog all the talk has been of an imminent base rate rise. Mark Carney even said as much last week.
So what of the outlook? Well the economists are saying a little rise in the interest rates will help in preventing the economy running away with itself, which will help keep a lid on inflation.
The MPC do not meet until November now so we have a bit of time to breathe and a bit of time for more news to counter the rise or add fuel to the talk of a rise. I have just received an email from Barclays saying they are withdrawing some of their headline fixed rate deals this week and they expect the replacement deals to be higher, this to me could be an indication that their boffins see a rise in the offing too.
Still, as the Bank rate is 0.25% right now and there are only two rate announcements left this year I’m going to stick with my original prediction of the year ending at 0.25%. In my corner we have had nine base rate meetings since the historic reduction of August 2016 and in all but three of those the votes were unanimous in keeping rates at the all time low of 0.25%. The last three meetings have seen two of the nine committee members vote for a rise to 0.5%. Will there be enough of a swing before the year is out to push the rate back up? I’m not convinced.
However, if the rate is pushed up it is only going to go to 0.5% and that is still very low, and given the huge uncertainty surrounding the economy at the moment I think the Bank will leave it alone at 0.5% for some time, if indeed they raise the rate at all.
In conclusion I may be wrong about interest rates staying put but please do not panic, I cannot see them going high, we are not in the 1990’s now.
Give me a call if you would like to discuss this further, and how it may affect your mortgage or your options for taking out a new mortgage. Please don’t hold me to any of my predictions though…!